The DRAM market is expected to see further price declines in the first quarter of 2025, impacting PC, server, and GPU VRAM segments. According to TrendForce, this downward trend is due to seasonal demand fluctuations and strategic inventory management by buyers.
PC DRAM Market
Prices for PC DRAM are projected to fall by 8-13%. This is largely attributed to weak consumer demand and an oversupply of DDR4 memory modules. Chinese manufacturers increasing DDR4 production is exacerbating the oversupply, further driving down prices. Although DDR5 adoption is increasing, it has not yet offset the abundance of older DDR4 modules. PC manufacturers are cautiously building inventories to capitalize on these lower prices.
Server DRAM Market
Server DRAM prices are also predicted to decline by 5-10%. The ongoing shift from DDR4 to DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is shaping this market. Major suppliers are reallocating production to newer technologies for data center and AI applications. However, the surplus of DDR4 memory combined with cautious buying continues to keep prices suppressed. DDR5 uptake hasn't yet balanced out the oversupply of DDR4.
GPU VRAM Market
In the GPU VRAM sector, prices are expected to drop by 5-10%. Subdued demand and high inventory levels are contributing factors. Though some production has shifted to HBM for high-performance GPUs used in AI, the demand for conventional graphics DRAM remains weak. The gaming and professional graphics markets are still recovering from periods of high inventory and soft consumer demand, keeping GPU VRAM prices low.
Trend and Historical Context
The decline in DRAM prices is part of a broader trend seen over the past two years. Early 2023 saw DRAM prices drop by as much as 20%, driven by oversupply and weak demand. In 2024, the pace of decline slowed, but the market continued to struggle with high inventory levels and slow adoption of new technologies.
As 2025 begins, the DRAM market is expected to continue facing these challenges. Cautious purchasing and the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand will likely keep prices suppressed, allowing buyers to benefit from lower costs, but straining suppliers in an increasingly competitive landscape.
Forecasted Price Changes
| Market Segment | Expected Price Drop |
|---|---|
| PC DRAM | 8-13% |
| Server DRAM | 5-10% |
| GPU VRAM | 5-10% |
