NVIDIA's Add-in Board (AIB) GPU market share has surged to 90% in Q3 2024, even as the overall market experienced a 14.5% decline in shipments. This unusual downturn highlights a shift in consumer purchasing habits.
GPU Market Dynamics
Total PC discrete GPU shipments dropped from 9.5 million units in Q2 2024 to 8.1 million units in Q3 2024. This contradicts the usual trend where Q3 typically sees an increase in GPU shipments due to the holiday season. In the past decade, GPU shipments have increased by an average of 7.9% compared to the second quarter.
While GPU shipments decreased, total PC CPU shipments actually increased to 20.1 million units in Q3 2024, a 42.2% quarter-over-quarter rise, however year-on-year shipments decreased by -3.4% . This rise in CPU shipments has also had an impact on the AIB attach rate in desktop PCs, reducing it by -26.9% from the previous quarter.
NVIDIA's Dominance
Despite the market decline, NVIDIA has increased its market share by 2% quarter-over-quarter, now controlling 90% of the discrete GPU market, while AMD holds just 10% and Intel effectively 0%.
Economic Outlook
Dr. Jon Peddie, President of Jon Peddie Research, forecasts a gloomy long-term outlook for the GPU market, citing significantly higher end-user prices due to projected tariffs as a driving factor:
"Our long-term CAGR forecast is gloomy based on the expected impact of significantly higher end-user prices due to the projected tariffs...We think the tariffs and lack of matching wage increases in the next two years will drive the US economy into a recession, and other nations will feel the implications as consumers pull back their spending."
JPR forecasts a compound annual growth rate of -6.0 % for AIBs from 2024 to 2028, with a projected total of 119 million units by the end of 2028.
